Sentiment-scaled CAPM and market mispricing

This study explores the conditional version of the capital asset pricing model on sentiment to provide a behavioural intuition behind the value premium and market mispricing. We find betas (β) and the market risk premium to vary over time across different sentiment indices and portfolios. More importantly, the state β derived from this sentiment-scaled model provides a behavioural explanation of the value premium and a set of anomalies driven by mispricing. Different from the static β–return relation that gives a flat security market line, we document upward security market lines when plotting portfolio returns against their state βs and portfolios with higher state βs earn higher returns.     

现代资产定价理论的研究和发展——基于有效市场假说和资产定价模型的视角

围绕对有效市场假说的联合检验假设难题、资本资产定价模型的检验、“贝塔通缉令”“因子动物园”“多因素模型大战”等重点和核心话题,对现代资产定价理论文献的研究脉络进行梳理和评述,在此基础上对未来资产定价的研究重点和方向提出建议。     

On equity market inefficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic

We show that during the weeks following the initiation of the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States equity market was inefficient. This is demonstrated by showing that utility maximizing agents over the time period ranging from mid-February to late March 2020 can generate statistically significant profits by utilizing only historical price and virus related data to forecast future equity ETF returns. We generalize Merton’s optimal portfolio problem using a novel method based upon a likelihood ratio in order to construct a dynamic trading strategy for utility maximizing agents. These strategies are shown to have statistically significant profitability and strong risk and performance statistics during the COVID-19 time-frame.     

湖北省优化营商环境分析与优化研究

良好的营商环境对提升区域综合竞争力具有重大意义。本文采用近年湖北省营商环境相关数据,运用主成分分析法运算得分,从经贸环境、社会环境、基础设施、生态环境、服务环境等湖北营商环境指标,揭示相关政策措施对湖北省营商环境的促进作用,以期为相关部门完善优化营商环境政策,提升湖北省营商环境提供参考。     

Remaking Shanghai: New Divisions in an Expanding Metropolis

This study of Shanghai analyzes the city's emerging patterns of residential settlement in 2010. Most previous research on China focused on central city patterns, but by 2010 urban development in major metropolitan areas was taking place predominantly in the suburbs. The analysis re‐examines and extends previous studies of the level of segregation by various key population characteristics, showing that the highest segregation is found in the suburban ring, where original villager residents are now joined by an influx of migrants from other regions and by intracity movers. We probe the sources of the segregation pattern in multivariate analyses at two scales—an innovative analysis at the level of individuals that shows how people's citizenship status, occupation and education affect the type of housing that they are able to live in, and jointly contribute to their location in the metropolitan area. We show that the patterns attributable to the market reform period mostly did not supplant the socialist urban structure, but rather used it as its foundation. Segregation today can be attributed less to current class inequality than to state policies in the distant and recent past that have determined when, where and for whom housing is built.     

Market impact: a systematic study of the high frequency options market

This paper deals with a fundamental subject that has seldom been addressed in recent years, that of market impact in the options market. Our analysis is based on a proprietary database of metaorders—large orders that are split into smaller pieces before being sent to the market—on one of the main Asian markets. In line with our previous work on the equity market [Said, E., Bel Hadj Ayed, A., Husson, A. and Abergel, F., Market impact: A systematic study of limit orders. Mark. Microstruct. Liq., 2018, 3(3&4), 1850008.], we propose an algorithmic approach to identify metaorders, based on some implied volatility parameters, the at the money forward volatility and at the money forward skew. In both cases, we obtain results similar to the now well-understood equity market: Square-Root Law, Fair Pricing Condition and Market Impact Dynamics.     

环境规制、市场势力与企业创新

具有市场势力的企业面临环境规制时可以通过研发创新实现波特效应，也可以通过转嫁合规成本实现利润最大化。本文利用新《环境保护法》实施这一准自然实验，基于双重差分和三重差分模型系统地评估了环境强监管对具有不同市场势力的上市公司研发创新的影响。研究发现，新《环境保护法》的实施显著促进了企业的研发创新，市场势力本身与企业创新呈现倒“U”型关系，同时市场势力显著抑制了新《环境保护法》的波特效应。     

市场环境、企业社会责任与基金安全投资转移

当市场环境不好以及不确定性增加时，基金进行安全投资转移。企业积极履行社会责任所形成的声誉资本具有“类保险”作用，在面临负面事件或不确定性环境冲击时能够防止股价大幅下跌和市值损失；基金是否会在市场环境不好时将投资组合转向社会责任绩效更高的股票进行安全投资转移呢？使用2010—2017年开放式基金样本，实证检验了企业社会责任、市场环境与安全投资转移之间的关系。研究发现，在市场环境表现不佳时，基金避险需求增加，倾向将投资组合更多地转向社会责任绩效高的股票进行安全投资转移；进一步研究发现基金和基金经理特征影响基金的安全投资转移行为，净资金流入较少、历史业绩差、经理选股能力差的基金根据企业社会责任进行安全投资转移的程度大。研究还发现，基金的安全投资转移行为对基金业绩和基金收益波动产生了积极影响。     

The rationality of irrationality in times of financial crises

Whilst there are many models discussing the mechanics of financial crises, the notion of predation seems to be insufficiently taken into consideration as one of the explanatory behavioral factors, although it would enrich the understanding of dysfunctional financial markets. This paper provides a stylized model for disruptive and toxic economic behaviors in the context of predatory markets like the subprime crisis of 2007–2009. In this context, we investigate why consumers and sellers buy products they know to be toxic. Conventional economic models contain classical tenets that assume that consumers are rational and search for utility maximization; however, these models cannot straightforwardly explain the behaviors consumers and sellers adopted during times of financial crises, known as “exuberantly irrational”. Hence, we use and expand on a predator-prey perspective that endeavors to capture such behaviors more effectively while showing that four market variables must be considered together over time – consumers, suppliers, toxic products and regulations. Our analysis shows that during the GFC, consumers and lenders as well as regulators embraced whole-heartedly, and contrary to common economic sense, the development and marketing of toxic products. Their behaviors were actually quite rational in the context of a poisoned market. Such observation could assist in drafting regulations.     

Revisiting constraints to smallholder participation in high-value markets: A best-worst scaling approach

We show how policymakers in developing regions can generate richer insights from using the choice experiment method best-worst scaling (BWS) method when ranking policy priorities on an importance scale. More specifically, we adopt BWS to provide an update on constraints that limit the participation of Kenyan horticultural smallholder farmers in modern agricultural value chains. In addition to traditional constraints posed by input market failures and missing institutions, we considered constraints such as trust and familiarity with buyers shown by recent empirical studies to inform smallholders’ market choices. Ascertaining the relevance of these constraints highlights our contribution to the existing literature. We find that farmers consistently rate access to high-quality inputs as their main constraint followed by concerns about access to credit, the high cost of meeting food standards, missing cooperatives, and exploitative intermediaries. Respondents considered insufficient labor, small farmlands, and weak tenure rights as the least important constraints. Age, location, gender, household income, and education influence the relative importance various segments of smallholders place on these constraints. For example, constraints are economic rather than personal for low-income farmers. Counterintuitively, rural smallholders are less likely to perceive poor transportation network as a constraint. Smallholders’ distrust of buyers they interact with is informed by their location and income. In designing intervention initiatives, policies that focus on segments of smallholders are needed for improving smallholder participation in modern agricultural value chains.